Will the U.S. Expand Under Trump?

The United States was formed in 1776 by the federation of 13 colonies on the East Coast.  Since then, it has grown: 

• 1783. The Treaty of Paris (formally ending the Revolutionary War and granting to the United States all of the area east of the Mississippi River, north of Florida, and south of Canada).
• 1803.  The Louisiana Purchase.
• 1819. The Adams–Onís Treaty, adding Florida.
• 1820.  Maine.
• 1825.  “Seward’s Folly.” Purchase of Alaska from Russia.
• 1845. Texas Annexation.
• 1846. Oregon Territory.
• 1848. The Mexican-American War.  The Treaty of Guadalupe. The “Mexican Cession” added Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and western Colorado.
• 1853.  Gadsden Purchase adding southern Arizona and southern New Mexico.
• 1898.  Hawaii Annexation. 
• 1899.  The Tripartite Convention partitioned the Samoan Islands into two and the eastern island group became American Samoa.
• 1917.  The Treaty of the Danish West Indies. The U.S.  purchased the American Virgin Islands. 
• And without getting into too much detail, the U.S. also acquired many Pacific Ocean islands, while other islands were won during WWII.
  

President-Elect has now broached the idea of enlarging the U.S. for the first time in quite many years.  He wants to buy Greenland from Denmark, has suggested that Canada become the 51^st State, and thinks that the U.S. may need to reclaim the Panama Canal.  We’ll look at all three of these below.

Greenland.  Greenland is the world’s largest island and is the northernmost point of land in the world.  Though settled by Norway and Iceland in 986, these early European settlements disappeared in 14^th and early-15^th centuries.  Denmark-Norway re-established contact with Greenland in the early 17^th century, and reasserted their sovereignty over the island.  Denmark and Norway separated in 1814, and Greenland became Danish. To this day, the people in Greenland are citizens of Denmark, and thus members of the European Union.  Since 1979 Greenlandic people have enjoyed “home rule.”  Since 2008 they have governed themselves; the only control retained by the Danish government relates to citizenship, monetary policy, defense and foreign affairs. Most of Greenland is covered in ice, and about 57,000 people, mostly Inuit, live there.

Mr. Trump says the United States needs to buy Greenland from Denmark. “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

During his first term as President, Mr. Trump raised the issue of the U.S. buying Greenland several times.  He even scheduled a trip to Denmark in 2019, at which he had hoped to discuss the issue.  But when Denmark’s Prime Minister announced that Denmark was not interested in selling the island, Mr. Trump cancelled the trip.

“Denmark is a very special country with incredible people, but based on Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s comments, that she would have no interest in discussing the purchase of Greenland, I will be postponing our meeting scheduled in two weeks for another time,” Trump said, adding that, “The Prime Minister was able to save a great deal of expense and effort for both the United States and Denmark by being so direct. I thank her for that and look forward to rescheduling sometime in the future!”

Fast-forward from 2019 to 2024, and President-Elect Trump has again suggested that Denmark sell Greenland to the U.S.  Obviously, he’s hoping they have had time to re-think the 2019 rejection.  The cost of maintaining its ownership of Greenland has been expensive for Denmark, so perhaps the Danish goverenment may take a different view to his suggestions.  But, as stated, Greenland has its own local government, which has full control of all local matters, and in 2019 its premier Kim Kielsen, said that Greenland “is not for sale and cannot be sold.” 

Following the reassertion of the offer to buy Greenland by President-Elect Trump in late 2024, Greenland’s Prime Minister, Mute Egede, again declined.  “Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland. We are not for sale and we will not be for sale. We must not lose our long struggle for freedom.”

Stay tuned.  This may not be over yet.  Mr. Trump, notably, did not even hint at a proposed purchase price, and perhaps with a purchase price of sufficient size to get Denmark’s attention, and promises to improve Greenland’s infrastructure and economy, there might be sufficient interest kindled to result in some talks and perhaps to go forward on this proposal. 

Canada.   Probably just kidding, but there is much truth said in jest. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travelled to Mar-a-Lago to meet with President-Elect Trump after Mr. Trump suggested imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, to remain in effect until both countries ended the flow of drugs and immigrants illegally entering the U.S. from those countries. Trudeau pleaded that a 25% tariff on all Canadian products would destroy the Canadian economy.  The U.S. buys approximately three-quarters of Canada’s exports.

“No one can answer why we subsidize Canada to the tune of over $100,000,000 a year? Makes no sense!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51^st State.”  Trump continued, “They would save massively on taxes and military protection. I think it is a great idea,” he added. “51^st State!!!” Mr. Trump also jokingly called Trudeau the “governor” of the “Great State of Canada.”

Most commentators understand that Mr. Trump’s comments were said in jest, and that he has no active plans to move forward on this issue, but some have discussed it meaningfully, concluding that it makes good sense, or alternatively, that it does not.  Canada’s economy is very unhealthy, with huge inflation and underpaid workers, housing prices so high that even professionally successful younger people cannot afford to buy homes, and a military that is running on fumes, with old equipment, much of which is in disrepair.  There are perennial legislative battles between the French-speaking Quebec and the western provinces (Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia), taxation far higher than U.S. taxation, and detested “Transfer Payments,” by which the citizens of prosperous western provinces subsidize the poorer Quebec. 

Newsweek ran a poll asking Canadians if they would like for Canada to become the 51^st state.  The poll found that 82 percent of Canadians would not like to become the 51^st state, 13 percent said they would, and 5 percent did not know or chose not to answer.  While Canada is slightly larger in geographic size than the United States (that measure includes landmass and water; when the waters are removed from the comparison, the U.S. landmass is larger than Canada’s landmass), most of its population lives relatively close to its southern border with the U.S., and in fact its entire population is less than the population of the State of California alone. 

So, certainly, Donald Trump’s “suggestion” was apparently made in jest, but it still might have a “ring of truth” about it and its implementation (though that won’t happen) might still be argued to be beneficial for both countries.

Now that Justin Trudeau has announced that he will resign as Canada’s Prime Minister when another Liberal Party leader is chosen in three months, Trump upped the ante, saying:

“Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned. If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!”

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— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) January 6, 2025

Panama Canal.  The United States built the Panama Canal.  It was extremely costly both in terms of money spent and in terms of workers’ lives lost.  The country of Panama actually owes its very existence to America’s decision to build the canal through the Isthmus of Panama.  What is now Panama was a part of Columbia, and the Colombian government was not supportive of Teddy Roosevelt’s proposal to build a canal in its northern province.  (To be specific, a treaty was negotiated with Columbia and it was ratified by the U.S. Senate, but the Columbian Senate rejected it.)  Thereafter, Roosevelt supported a revolution in Panama. The U.S. Navy prohibited the Columbians from sending troops to quell the Panamanian Revolution.  Upon the revolution’s success, the U.S. quickly came to terms with the Panamanians (the “Hay–Bunau-Varilla Treaty”), giving the U.S. control of the Panama Canal Zone on February 23, 1904, in return for $10 million.

The US formally took control of the canal property from French interests in May 1904.  A French company had attempted for many years (1881–1899) to construct a canal, but failed with a mix of corruption, bad engineering and ineffective management.  But to a large extent, its failure was also due to the dense jungle, snakes and insects, as well as terrible disease (yellow fever and malaria), along with industrial accidents, which had killed about 22,000 workers. The first French project went bankrupt in 1889 after having spent $287 million. A second, and then a third French company, tried to construct the canal, all ending in failure

When the U.S. symbolically received the keys in 1904, it also received 2,150 buildings (most of them dilapidated or inhabitable) and poorly constructed incomplete infrastructure, mostly in poor condition; some of the equipment on site was still serviceable. For the equipment and for the incomplete trenching of the canal route, the U.S. paid the French interests $40 million. This was in addition to the $10 million paid to Panama.  The U.S. also agreed to an annual payment of $250,000 to Panama.  (Many years later, in 1921, the United States agreed to pay Columbia $25 million (the “Thomson–Urrutia Treaty”), and Colombia finally agreed to recognize Panama’s sovereignty.)

Immediately upon receiving the “keys” in 1904, the United States began the process of rebuilding the canal workers’ community, where the workers would live during the huge project that lay ahead.  Sanitation was of the highest priority, as yellow fever and malaria (both borne by mosquitos that plagued the area in huge numbers) had to be controlled, if not eradicated.

A great debate raged, with engineers on both sides, over whether the canal should be a sea-grade canal or a lock system, which would raise and lower ships from a large reservoir some 85-feet above sea level. The lock system was chosen because of the flooding that regularly occurred, but this engineering choice required the creation of both Gatun Dam and Gatun Lake, both, respectively, the largest dam in the world and the largest human-made lake in the world, at that time.  The U.S. brought in 102 large, railroad-mounted steam shovels, several enormous steam-powered cranes, giant hydraulic rock crushers, concrete mixers, dredges, pneumatic power drills, and other heavy equipment. 

The United States spent nearly $500 million (roughly equivalent to $15.5 billion in today’s dollars), including the money handed to Panama and to the former French interests, to complete the project, which took until 1914, without stop. More than 75,000 people were employed during the construction, with about 40,000 workers at one time. Of these, some 5,609 died from disease and accidents.

The canal was a engineering achievement for the ages. It was also a huge economic asset to the United States. Global shipping routes were radically changed, as ships no longer needed to circumvent the Drake Passage and Cape Horn. The voyage from New York to San Francisco, travelling through the new canal, saved 7,800 miles. 

But with the opening of the canal in 1914, the U.S. construction effort was not done, nor were the costs contained.  In the 1930’s the U.S. constructed the Madden Dam across the Chagres River to provide additional water for the canal.  In 1939, a project to build new larger locks was begun and continued for several years, before being abandoned at the end of WWII. The canal was maintained on a constant and continuing basis by the U.S.

Some factions in Panama complained and protested that the canal should not belong to the United States.  It is entirely true that it is within the borders of the Panamanian nation, but it was built by the U.S. at great cost and with great effort.  The U.S. had carved a path through the jungle across the isthmus, and had built one of the engineering marvels of the world.  The canal was not built by the nation of Panama.  Panama did not provide any of the necessary funds.  Panama did not do the engineering.  And it was built in accordance with a treaty between thye U.S. and Panama, and the U.S. had paid Panama the treaty-agreed compensation.  But still, Panamanians viewed the ownership of the canal as an outrage and an insult to their nation’s sovereignty.  A riot by Panamanians in 1964 resulted in deaths of both protestors and defending U.S. soldiers. 

Fast forward to 1977, when President Jimmy Carter basically gave away the canal to Panama in exchange for one dollar (the “Torrijos-Carter Treaty”), with an effective date in 1979.  The Treaty provided that U.S. technicians and others would stay in place, but be gradually drawn down, over the following 20 years, to allow the Panamanians to learn how to run the canal.  Not all Americans rejoiced at this give-away.  Conservatives and Republicans were appalled by Carter’s unnecessary largesse.

In more recent times, the government of Panama and the Canal Zone authority have been entering into numerous agreements with the People’s Republic of China which have effectively given China significant control over the canal.  According to Newsweek, “China controls two of Panama’s five principal zone ports, and is responsible for large parts of the canal’s infrastructure, with Chinese firms funding the construction of a new bridge over the canal to the tune of over $1 billion. “ 

According to Diálogo Américas, “Nearly 40 Chinese companies are already present in Panama in sectors as diverse as mining, finance, logistics, and telecommunications. Half of them, such as the Chinese technology multinational Huawei, have opened distribution centers in the Colon Free Zone under the special regime law. But most important is the presence it has achieved in the Panama Canal. China controls two of the five ports adjacent to the canal, Balboa on the Pacific, and Cristobal on the Caribbean, and is preparing for the construction of the fourth bridge over the canal.  Of particular concern is that Beijing could use its projects to monitor activity in the canal, gathering information that could have implications for the continent’s security.”

According to the Washington Times: “While China does not operate the canal, Hutchison [a Chinese company operating in many countries] manages the ports of Balboa and Cristobal on both sides of the isthmus and the concession for Margarita Island, Panama’s largest Atlantic port.  Hutchison is rumored to have deep ties spanning decades with Beijing.”

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump told a crowd at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest rally in December 2004 that he would never allow the Panama Canal to fall into the “wrong hands.” He added, “We’re being ripped off at the Panama Canal, like we’re being ripped off everywhere else,”

Posting on Truth Social, Trump said, “The United States has a vested interest in the secure, efficient, and reliable operation of the Panama Canal, and that was always understood. We would and will NEVER let it fall into the wrong hands! It was not given for the benefit of others, but merely as a token of cooperation with us and Panama. If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question. To the Officials of Panama, please be guided accordingly!”

He added: “When President Jimmy Carter foolishly gave it away, for One Dollar, during his term in Office, it was solely for Panama to manage, not China, or anyone else. It was likewise not given for Panama to charge the United States, its Navy, and corporations, doing business within our Country, exorbitant prices and rates of passage. Our Navy and Commerce have been treated in a very unfair and injudicious way. The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, especially knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed to Panama by the U.S.”

As reported above, Trump says the canal must not fall into the “wrong hands,” and the question is raised whether it has already fallen into the “wrong hands,” to wit., the hands of China.  Per the New York Post: “Hutchison’s [the Chinese company mentioned above] operational concession, which was renewed [for 25 years] by Panama’s government in 2021, thus preserves de facto Chinese control over one of the world’s most vital conduits of maritime traffic.  By 2022, additional Chinese investment in Panama flooded more than $2.5 billion of Beijing’s capital into the Canal Zone, where more than 40 other Chinese companies now operate.”

So, what are the realities of U.S. expansion in Greenland, Canada, and Panama?  Most observers say there is no chance with respect to Canada, and that Trump was just playing with Trudeau.  But unnamed sources, said to be close to Trump have been quoted to say he’s serious about Greenland and the Panama Canal.  Per the NY Post: “The president is 100% serious,” a source close to Trump confirmed.”  But Trump wants to buy Greenland from Denmark, not seize it.  He has called Denmark a good ally, and he would open serious negotiations toward a contractual sale, if Denmark were interested.  At this point, however, Denmark is apparently not interested, but perhaps this could change.

But the Panama Canal raises a different set of issues, and if Mr. Trump sees the canal being unduly influenced by China, and if that influence could prohibit the movement of American naval and merchant ships from the Atlantic to the Pacific – something that would be vital to American national security in the event of a war with China – Trump appears ready to take whatever action is necessary to restore the Canal to American control.